The “Post-Oil Era”

Now, here’s a stunning bit of news that deserves to be highlighted, and not just mentioned in a passing comment: Saudi Arabia preparing social reforms for a “post-oil era“.

That’s not going to be an easy ride. There will be all sorts of turbulence and disruption. The “chaotic transition” intensifies.

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8 responses to “The “Post-Oil Era””

  1. abdulmonem says :

    The same old talk of rationality and linearity, a trend which has been surpassed by the new mode of consciousness. Change does not need to follow only the economic rationalization which has proved it incapacity to solve the human problem on the contrary it has proved it is the source of this problem. Change is a must in the human development, it is programmed in his construction. Spiritual awareness is the road to the future, we are all heading to His presence . God is the true motivator of humanity across the timespace frame, once the human becomes attentive to his obligations on this earth. The region needs to ignite its inner spiritual resources and stop being puppets in the hand of the others, and may the others be more honest and truthful when working with others and make them aware of their captive potentialities. Nothing stay put. It is a very elusive problem in the present atmosphere of the competing and combating human wills and its interaction in the field of the supreme divine will where obscurity veils the demarcation as where the human will, stop and the divine will, start or in reverse, in the overall frame of his overcoming and permeating will and his demand for the human to be of value to himself and to others. It is a struggle in patience with the ills and perseverance with the good. It is a world of shifting cycles and continual immigration of ideas and human to seek better land to flourish in a more healthy atmosphere. The cycle of death and rebirth on this earth or somewhere else

  2. davidm58 says :

    Good that an attempt is being made by S.A. to begin a move to the inevitable post-oil era. I’m reminded of the movie Syriana:

    “What are they thinking *hah*? What are they thinking? They’re thinking that it’s running out. It’s running out, and 90% of what’s left is in the Middle East. Look at the progression: Versailles, Suez, 1973, Gulf War 1, Gulf War 2. This is a fight to the death. So what are THEY thinking? Great! They’re thinking keep playing, keep buying yourself new toys, keep spending $50,000 a night on your hotel room, but don’t invest in your infrastructure… don’t build a real economy. So that when you finally wake up, they will have sucked you dry, and you will have squandered the greatest natural resource in history.”

    See Wikiquotes for more great quotes from the movie.
    https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Syriana

    • Scott Preston says :

      Yes, I’ve seen Syriana. I always liked Clooney, so I was surprised when he became a shill and a barker and a bagman for Clinton’s campaign, even though he even seems now to be embarrassed by it… something he referred to as “obscene”.

      It’s a very surprising announcement from the Saudis (although Alberta is in a very similar difficulty, and quite unprepared for it). It tells me one of two things — either the Saudis greatly exaggerated their reserves (a long-held suspicion amongst some) or they’ve simply seen the writing on the wall that oil is going to be phased out. I tend to suspect the former myself.

  3. davidm58 says :

    I suspect the former as well. The current oil glut on the world market, and depressed prices might lead one to believe that the idea of “peak oil” has been debunked. This is not true, but is rather yet another example of enantiadromia. The Post Carbon institute’s nailed it a number of years ago. Instead of talking about ever increasing prices due to peak oil, he talked about Energy Uncertainty that would throw our planning processes into disarray. (http://www.postcarbon.org/publications/post-carbon-cities/)

    Richard Heinberg (Senior Fellow of the Post Carbon Institute) sums up the situation in a post today, in just two paragraphs:

    “Today’s oil glut resulted from years of record-high oil prices and record-low interest rates, which sent torrents of investment capital flooding toward drilling projects in dismal-quality reservoirs—tight oil projects operated by many small-to-medium sized companies whose incentives were to lease land and drill as quickly as possible using other people’s money. This rapid-fire drilling flooded a depressed market, causing fuel prices to collapse and producers’ balance sheets to bleed red ink.

    Meanwhile, the longer-term trend is toward higher costs to the oil industry as conventional crude production levels continue to wane and regular oil is replaced with expensive deepwater oil, arctic oil, tar sands, and tight oil. There are few if any of these new unconventional oil projects that make financial sense in today’s low-price environment, so the industry is currently investing vanishingly little in exploration. The eventual and inevitable result will be falling overall production rates and ever-more violent price swings. Without a long-term plan for weaning global transportation from its primary energy source, we face an economic whipsaw cutting first at society as a whole (when prices are high), then at the oil industry (when prices are low), with each turn of the blade made more savage by declining resource quality and by massive and growing levels of debt not only within the oil industry but throughout society as a whole.”
    http://www.resilience.org/stories/2016-04-18/a-personal-appreciation-of-m-king-hubbert

  4. abdulmonem says :

    It is tragic for the human to think that he is running the show, it is also tragic for him to think that he is not responsible for running his show. Conundrum. Movie is not real life. It is important to know who is running the show and lead you to express the thoughts he puts in your way to follow and continue to follow until one day the light strikes. Nothing goes through the meat-grinder of Hollywood comes out intact. Corrupt to win, demoralize to rule,it is no longer the only old adage of divide and conquer. The story of the middle east reveals the institutional betrayal of the west under the direction of the >>> exploiting the ignorant Arab pushing them to lower and lower existence with the help of the traitors of the region, Describing the Arab in the most loathsome pictures is the errand of Hollywood ever since its inception, to legitimise the existence of Israel in this primitive,backward and rotten middle east. It is the story of the two sons of Abraham ordained to be displayed at this conjecture of our present time. The sad part is that the third party of the Abrahamic triangle took side instead of playing the role of partial mediator. Syriana is another confusing episode where the well-educated and the ignorant are intermingled in order to depict the continuing ugly scene of our so-called modern world. A scene that is prone to fatal death. At the end I like to ask David what Hubbert meant by it is a cultural problem. Let us not forget that all scriptures play a role in this development pointing to not to forget the original runner of the show.

  5. davidm58 says :

    Abdulmonem,
    M. King Hubbert said, “Our biggest problem is not the end of our resources. That will be gradual. Our biggest problem is a cultural problem. We don’t know how to cope with it.”

    I interpret this to mean that our individual structure of consciousness affects our societal and cultural structures. And our societal and cultural structures (what Pogany refers to as Global System 1, 2, and 3) in turn affects and shapes our individual structures of consciousness. Therefore it is a self-reinforcing feedback loop that is very difficult to break out of. It takes a chaotic transition, or “havoc” to break up the old system and to allow the new to be born.

    P.S. technical difficulties…it’s becoming increasingly complicated for me to comment on this blog, due to the WordPress system consistently thinking I’m trying to comment from my wife’s WordPress account, even though she is not signed in…so comments from me might become scarce.

  6. davidm58 says :

    Having been one of the first to take notice of the new direction in Saudi Arabia, you might appreciate some of these more recent articles.

    http://www.resilience.org/stories/2016-05-27/the-desperate-plight-of-petro-states
    http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2016/05/saudi-arabia-is-planning-for-post-oil.html

    • Scott Preston says :

      Yes. An interesting situation. I occasionally tune-in to what the Saudis are saying about their plans, but it’s often very contradictory stuff. I’m guessing, though, that the reason why is they don’t have the reserves they say they do.

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